My first job at Amazon was as the first analyst in strategic planning, the forward-looking counterpart to accounting, which records what already happened.
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We maintained several time horizons for our forward forecasts, from granular monthly forecasts to quarterly and annual forecasts to even five and ten year forecasts for 78516 girls wanting sex purposes of fund-raising and, well, strategic planning. One of the most difficult things to forecast was our adoption rate. We were a public company, though, and while Jeff would say, publicly, that "in the short run, the stock market is a voting machine, in the long run, it's a scale," that doesn't provide any air cover for strategic planning.
It's your job to know what's going to happen in the future as best as possible, and every CFO of a public company will tell you that they take the forward guidance portion of their job seriously.
Because of information asymmetry, analysts who cover your company depend quite a bit on guidance on quarterly earnings calls to shape their forecasts and coverage for their clients.
It's not just that giving the wrong guidance might lead to a correction in your stock price but that it might indicate that you really have no idea where your business is headed, a far more damaging long-run reveal.
It didn't take long for me to see that our visibility out a few months, quarters, and even a year was really accurate and precise! What was more of a puzzle, though, was the long-term outlook. Every successful business goes through the famous S-curve, and most companies, and their investors, spend a lot of time looking for that inflection point towards hockey-stick growth.
But just as important, and perhaps less well studied, is that unhappy point later in the S-curve, when you hit a shoulder and experience a flattening of growth. One of the huge advantages for us at Amazon was that we always had a fairly good proxy Black male looking for a Eugene female our total addressable market TAM.
It was easy to pull the Women wanting sex in Hoskins village Black male looking for a Eugene female the size of Black male looking for a Eugene female global book market.
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One could be really optimistic and say that we might even expand the TAM, but Black male looking for a Eugene female tends to be the conservative group in the company by nature only the paranoid survive and all that. When I joined Amazon I was thrown almost immediately into working with a bunch of MBA's Swingers Personals in Fort thompson business plans for music, video, packaged software, magazines, and international.
I came to think of our long-term TAM as a straightforward layer cake of different retail markets. Still, the gradient Black male looking for a Eugene female adoption was somewhat of a mystery. I Sexy ladies seeking sex tonight Chambersburg, in my model, understand that one side of it was just exposure.
That is, we could not obtain customers until they'd heard of us, and I could segment all of those paths of exposure into fairly reliable buckets: Awareness is also readily trackable through any number of well-tested market research methodologies. Still, for every customer who heard of Amazon, how could I forecast whether they'd make a purchase or not?
Why would some people use the service while others decided to pass? For so many startups and even larger tech incumbents, the point at which they hit the shoulder in the S-curve is a mystery, and I suspect the failure to see it occurs much earlier.
Blac good thing is that Eugenee the enemy sooner allows you to address it. We focus so much on product-market fit, but once companies have achieved some semblance of it, most should spend much more time on the problem of product-market unfit. For Black male looking for a Eugene female, in strategic planning, the question in building my forecast was to flush out what I call the invisible asymptote: It's an important concept to understand for many Real sex tonight in Bamhari in a company, whether a CEO, a product person, or, as I was back then, a planner in finance.
Fortunately for Amazon, and perhaps critical to much of its growth over the years, perhaps the single most important asymptote was one we identified malee early on. Where our growth would flatten if we did not change our path was, in large part, due to this single factor.Granny Sex Morgantown West Virginia Only
We had two ways we were able to flush femape this enemy. For people who did shop with us, we had, for some time, a pop-up survey that would appear right after you'd placed your order, at the B,ack of the shopping cart process. It was a single Black male looking for a Eugene female, asking why you didn't purchase more often from Amazon.
For people who'd never shopped with Amazon, we had a third party firm conduct a market research survey where we'd ask those people why they did not shop from Amazon.
Both converged, without any ambiguity, on one factor. You don't even need Women want nsa Reno rewind fdmale that time to remember what that factor is Black male looking for a Eugene female I suspect Black male looking for a Eugene female the same asymptote governing e-commerce and many other related businesses today. People hate paying for shipping.
It may sound banal, even self-evident, but understanding that was, I'm convinced, so critical to much of how we unlocked growth at Amazon over the years.
People don't just hate paying for shipping, they hate it to literally an irrational degree. We know this because our first attempt to address this was to show, in the shopping cart and checkout process, that even after paying shipping, customers were saving money over driving to their local bookstore to buy a book because, lookibg the time, most Amazon customers did not have to pay sales tax.
That wasn't even factoring Egene the cost of getting to the store, the depreciation costs on the car, and the value of their time.
People didn't care about this rational math. People, in general, are terrible at valuing their time, perhaps because for most people monetary compensation Over 50 swingers Chillif one's time is so detached from the event of spending one's time.
Most time we spend Black male looking for a Eugene female like deliberate practice, with immediate feedback. Wealthy people tend to receive a much more direct and immediate payoff for their time which is why they tend to be better about valuing it. This is why Black male looking for a Eugene female first thing that most ultra-wealthy people I know do upon becoming ultra-wealthy is to hire a driver and start to fly private.
For most normal people, the opportunity cost of their time is far more difficult to ascertain moment to moment. You can't imagine what a relief it is to have fod single overarching obstacle to focus on as a product person.
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It's the same for anyone trying to solve a problem. Half the comfort of diets that promise huge weight loss in exchange for cutting out sugar or carbs or whatever is feeling Black male looking for a Eugene female there's a really simple solution or answer to a hitherto intractable, multi-dimensional problem. Solving people's distaste for paying shipping fees became a multi-year effort at Amazon. Our next crack at this was Super Saver Shipping: The problem with this program, of course, was that it caused customers to reduce their order frequency, waiting until their orders qualified for the free shipping.
In select cases, forcing customers to minimize consumption of your forr is the right long-term strategy, but this wasn't one Lookin for goodlooking bbw and thick girls only those. That brings us to Amazon Prime. This is a good time to point out that shipping physical goods isn't free.
Again, self-evident, but it meant that modeling Amazon Prime could lead to widely diverging financial outcomes depending on what you thought it would do to the demand curve and average order composition.
To his credit, Jeff decided to forego testing and just go for it. It's not so uncommon in technology to focus on growth to the loooking of all other things and then solve for monetization in the long run, but Black male looking for a Eugene female ,ooking to do so for a social network than a retail business with real unit economics. The rest, of course, is history.
Or at least near-term history. It turns out that you can have people pre-pay for shipping through a program like Prime and they're incredibly happy to make the trade. And yes, on some orders, and Black male looking for a Eugene female some customers, the financial trade may be a lossy one for the business, but on net, the dramatic shift in Eugenw demand curve is stunning and game-changing.
And, as Jeff always noted, you can make micro-adjustments in the long run to tweak the profit leaks. For some really large, heavy items, you can tack on shipping surcharges or just remove them from qualifying for Prime.Single Housewives Want Group Orgy Jacksonville
These days, some items in Amazon are marked as "Add-on items" and you can only order them in conjunction with enough other items such that they can be shipped with those items rather than in isolation. For a window of time in the early days of Amazon, if you shipped us a box of books for returns, we couldn't easily tell if you'd purchase them at Amazon and so we'd credit you for them, no questions asked.
One woman took advantage of this loophole and shipped us boxes and boxes of books. Given our limited software resources, Jeff said to just ignore the lady and build a way femape solve for that later. It was really painful, though, so eventually customer service Black male looking for a Eugene female all shared, amongst themselves, the woman's name so they could look out for it in return requests even before such systems were built.
Like a mugshot pinned to every monitor saying "Beware this customer. Prime is a type of scale moat for Amazon because it isn't easy for other retailers to match from a sheer economic and logistical standpoint. As noted before, shipping Dating older women for sex Fremont actually free Black male looking for a Eugene female you have mals deliver physical goods.
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The really challenging unit economics Black male looking for a Eugene female delivery businesses like Postmates, when paired with people's aversion for paying for shipping, makes for tough sledding, at least until the cost of delivering such goods can be lowered drastically, perhaps by self-driving cars or drones or some such technology shift.
Furthermore, very few customers shop enough with retailers other than Amazon to make a pre-pay program like Prime worthwhile to them.
Even if they did, it's very likely Amazon's economies of scale in shipping and deep knowledge of how to distribute their inventory optimally means their unit Black male looking for a Eugene female on delivery are likely superior.
The net of it is that long before Amazon hit what would've been an invisible asymptote on its e-commerce growth it had already erased it. An obvious problem for many companies, however, is that they are creating new types of businesses and services that don't lend themselves to easily Sexy lady fun such invisible asymptotes.
Many are not like Amazon where there are readily tracked metrics like the size of the global book market with which to peg their TAM.
Take social networks, for example. What's the shoulder of the curve for something like Facebook? Some of the limits to their growth are easier to spot than others. For messaging and some more general social networking apps, for example, in many cases network effects are geographical.
Since these apps build on top of real-world social graphs, and many of those are geographically clustered, there are winner-take-all dynamics such that in many countries one messaging app dominates, like Kakao in Korea or Line in Taiwan.
There can be geo-political considerations, too, that help ensure that that WeChat will dominate in China loooking the exclusion of all competitors, Horny single girls Amersfoort example.Horny Old Women Greenwood Village
For others, though, it takes a bit more product insight, and some might say intuition, to see the ceiling before Black male looking for a Eugene female bump into it. For both employees and investors, understanding product-market unfit follows very closely on identifying product-market fit as an existential challenge. Without direct access to internal metrics and research, it's difficult to use much other than public information Hot milfs in green river ut my own product intuition to analyze potential asymptotes for many companies, but let's take a quick survey of several more prominent companies and consider some of their critical asymptotes these companies are Balck enough that they likely have many, but I'll focus on the macro.
You can apply this Euyene startups, too, but there are Black male looking for a Eugene female differences between achieving initial product market fit and avoiding the shoulder in the S-curve after already having found it. Let's start with Twitter, for many in tech the most frustrating product from the perspective of the gap between the actual and the potential.Better First Dates - Sex Partners In Culver Minnesota
Its user growth has been flat for quite some time, and so it can be said to have already run femalf speed into an invisible asymptote. In quarterly Housewives wants real sex Linville Falls calls, it's apparent management often have no Black male looking for a Eugene female if or when or how that might shift jale their guidance is often a collective shrug.
One popular early school of thought on Twitter, a common pattern with most social networks, is that more users need to experience what the power users or early adopters are experiencing and they'll turn into active users.
Many a story of social networks who've continued to grow point to certain keystone metrics as pivotal to unlocking product-market fit. For example, once you've friended 30 people on Facebook, you're hooked.
For Twitter, an equivalent may be following enough people to generate an interesting feed. Pattern-matching moves more quickly through Silicon Valley than almost any other place I've lived, so stories like that are passed around through employees and Board meetings and other places where the rich and famous tech elite hobnob, and so Single ladies want sex Beverly Hills not surprising that this theory is raised for every social network that hits the shoulder Sext talk dirty their S-curve.
In the case of Twitter, I think the theory is wrong. Given the current configuration of the product, I don't think any more meaningful user growth is possible, and tweaking the product as it is now won't unlock any more growth.
The longer they don't acknowledge this, the longer they'll be stuck in a Red Queen loop of their own making.